Most media outlets, including this column, have focused on the Dem nomination fight because, well, it is a fight. But aside from brushing Bill Weld off his shoulder like lint, President Trump should automatically secure the GOP nomination in a recoronation convention in Charlotte, NC, in August of 2020. Thus his attention is already on November of that year.
Where does he stand today in pursuance of that goal? It depends on who leads the Dem ticket. However, if the economy holds, we stay at peace or win a war, and current trends continue…
The East: There will be some GOP bleed if the Dems nominate a seeming moderate or somebody telegenic. Florida could get tricky, as could North Carolina. That’s why the convention is there. But there’s chance of a pickup in New Hampshire. He’ll lose one state from his 2016 numbers. Though it won’t be enough to stop him. Pennsylvania will stay red.
The South: Over and done, except as noted above. Trump gallops to victory here, as southern voters are good and pissed off over the collusion hoax and Dem petulance at their 2016 loss. The president will have coattails too. Expect the GOP to pick off 5-8 Dem freshmen House members here and several others elsewhere. Perhaps not enough to return House control to the GOP. But maybe enough for the Republicans to cut deals and pass legislation if Trump wins.
The Midwest: Could spell trouble if the Dems give the nod to Biden. He has a Joe Lunchbucket appeal that could attract Wisconsin. Add that and maybe NC to Dem totals and things get tight. Ohio will stand with Trump, as will Michigan. The lower Midwest like Missouri is solid for the president.
The West: Nevada stays blue, as does Colorado. Arizona will be tighter than currently supposed. If they take that the Dems will have a real shot. The president’s team knows this and will make moves to shore up the area, maybe even trying to flip Nevada to compensate if AZ goes under. His best bet there that he won’t do? Swallow his pride and quietly make up with the McCains. The West Coast stays completely blue.
This is a crystal ball analysis as of today. Things can and will change. Though the silly idea of awarding Electoral College votes to the national popular vote winner is clearly unconstitutional and the status quo on that won’t change, much to gallons of liberal tears. Dark horse prediction: Pence makes way for a woman on the ticket, probably Nikki Haley, if the Dems as expected have a woman in either slot.
All bets are off if the Dems commit suicide and nominate a Sanders- or Warren-type far leftist. Then Donald Trump romps to a masterful Bush ’88 win and takes back the House and holds, maybe adds, to the Senate.
Are the Dems that dumb? Does the masochism in them run that deep? Will they sacrifice a shot at the presidency to make nice with the hard left?