On Monday an unidentified “Senior House Democrat,” probably Jerry Nadler, reportedly told several media outlets that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not be able to resist calls for impeachment from her fellow House Dems.
A hunch on my part, I think it is Nadler because he is notoriously thin-skinned. I know this from personal experience during the mid-90s. He’s outraged that Pelosi has downplayed impeachment. She has publicly opposed it. This, combined with the White House ignoring his subpoena, has sent him into a fit of rage.
As such, he’s been quite loquacious when it comes to impeachment in the general sense. He’s all for it. But he chose the anonymous route to bring his own Speaker to heel.
Nadler knows full well there is no consensus for impeachment, even amongst Dems in the House. That’s why he is attempting to manufacture the momentum when it actually isn’t there. He also knows that freshmen Dems could be vulnerable in their marginal districts if they pursue this course. Those districts elected House candidates who they thought were moderates, not ideologues intent on putting the country through a national trauma. But Nadler doesn’t care one way or another about them or the country. Trump and Pelosi ignored his stated wishes and now they will pay.
That is Jerry Nadler.
Of course, this will benefit the president as it will push the Dems farther left and make sure they continue to obsess on him. It will also pressure relatively, relative to Pol Pot, moderate Dems like Biden to take a firm stand on impeachment. That is exactly what Joe “Unite” does not want.
The press will put pressure on House Dems to back impeachment because they hate Trump and want the story. Taking the hint from Nadler, you will now see media run story after story on growing calls for impeachment. The news coverage will start off small and gradually increase to give the bandwagon effect.
After Amash, a few more Republicans may jump ship. Romney is a smart bet to do so when he can get the most advantage out of it. He could even try and leverage it into a primary challenge to Trump, claiming he doesn’t want to do it, but the country needs him.
Any GOP defection will get big play. The press and Dems will compare the push to impeach to the call for Nixon’s impeachment at the end of Watergate. Seeing Pulitzers and enhanced stature dancing in their heads, the Dem/Media Axis will solemnly nod to each other in agreement.
During this regime change attempt the president’s base gets madder and madder, bringing them to the 2020 polls like a high holy day, and independent voters will realize the impeachment push is nothing more than a product of the Dem tantrum left over from their 2016 loss. Knowing there is no chance, given GOP Senate numbers, for conviction really will frost those voters as well. The whole charade for nothing but spite.
Is that a certain outcome? Who bloody knows?
However, there is enough of a decent chance of it for the Dems (and Pelosi knows this) to avoid the impeachment play and hope the economy stalls, Trump takes other damage, or the president bungles a national security crisis. Pelosi remembers Clinton’s numbers went up after impeachment.
Sad, but the only way the Dems win in 2020 is if America suffers. Which is not the usual scenario.
America usually suffers after they win.