There’s an old saying in politics: it’s about the economy, stupid. The idea, quite simply, is that the economy is the most important factor for most people and is crucial in determining the vote. Given that stock markets are near record highs and the gross domestic product (GDP) continues to grow, Trump should be in a prime position to win reelection, right?
Actually, a recent poll found conflicting information. The economy remains important and according to many indicators is doing quite well. However, an increasing number of Americans believe that the economy is primarily benefiting those in power, potentially at the expense of middle- and working-class people.
In total, 60 percent of voters believe that the economy primarily benefits those in power. Unsurprisingly, these views are most commonly held among Democrats, with 8 in 10 supporting the notion. Six of 10 independents report the same. And roughly one-third of Republicans agree.
For President Donald Trump, this could spell trouble come 2020. Even if leading indicators, such as GDP growth, still hint at a healthy and vibrant economy, if people aren’t personally feeling the benefits, they could vote against President Trump. Accusations of corruption and enrichment could hurt the president further.
This is especially true if Trump is facing off against an economic populist promising large-scale economy reform. Take, for example, Bernie Sanders, who has labeled himself a Democratic Socialist. Sanders has promised widespread reform that would seek to address inequality. Universal healthcare and free college tuition are just some of the things he’s pledged.
Either way, President Trump could be in for a tough fight come 2020. In another poll, 55 percent of Americans claimed that they would not vote for Trump. Just 28 percent said that they would “definitely” vote for him.