Gotta give our socialist party one thing, they are a source of constant unintentional amusement. The Dem plan for the 2020 primary season is so full of booby traps, logistical confusion, and internal fixes that the Trump reelection campaign could have written it. Given Dem moves as of late, maybe they did.
First is the timing. The primaries have been so front-loaded from early February to early March that only top performers will survive past St. Patty’s Day. Much of that will depend on ammo, i.e., money. And a lot of that will come from corporate/union PACS. If that knocks out rebellious hard-left candidates it will breed long-held resentment, like that of Sanders voters of 2016, that the fix is in. Again. Even winning the media primary may not help as much as in the past.
Second, the sheer number of candidates. How are you going to get them all on one primary debate stage with a chance to answer a question or two in the scope of a normal format? Are some going to have to sit at the political equivalent of the kid’s table? The stragglers and front-runner hunters in the likely herd of 20 by then will know they have to break out and move ahead by getting noticed. As Trump proved, easiest way to do that? Eviscerate your opponents. Said vivisection will not go down well with the supporters of the soon-to-be political carcasses and will give the GOP material for the fall. Yes, the GOP had a similar issue in 2016. But the number of Dem competitors could be higher than that was.
Lastly, for now, our old pals the superdelegates. Yes, the assembled machine power brokers can’t vote on the first ballot at the convention. They can after. The size of the field and identitarian politics could mitigate towards a fractured party, where not one of the two or three candidates left standing has the numbers to win outright on the first ballot. Second ballot could happen and the superdelegates could swoop in and install a machine pick like Biden. This will super annoy the remaining delegates and could lead to their apathy in November. Once again playing into GOP hands.
Add a viable indy candidate like Schultz to the mix? It gets even more desperately bizarre.
So get the pizza and beer ready for this months-long political sporting event. If things work out as prophesied above, don’t worry about missing too much of it though. The fall championship game will just be a rerun from 2016.