In the first of this series we chronicled the 2019 challenges facing Ukraine, Russia, and France and their effect on U.S. interests. As French President Emmanuel Macron faces a no confidence vote in his Chamber of Deputies on Thursday, we’ll keep an eye on France and report back forthwith.
Today, actually tonight, just a couple of hours after the British Tory vote on Prime Minister Theresa May, we focus on the Brits, the Boche, and the Easterners. All different nations and very different stories.
The United Kingdom: In the worst of all possible scenarios for the Brits, Theresa May survived a Tory backbench rebellion with 63 percent of the vote and will continue as a flawed wounded prime minister. She had to assure her fellow Conservatives she would not stand again for office in 2022. But she will be there for the foreseeable future. That means a soft Brexit that will be a compromise to the EU on issues like trade, domestic law, and borders. It’s as if Brexit had gone the other way. This is the natural consequence of having a Remain backer leading a Brexit party and government. She never believed in it and now has used the cowardice of her rank and file to advance her plan to kill Brexit in everything but name. She knew she had brought the Tories so low they could lose a general election that could ensue if she lost power. So instead of taking their choices to the people in a snap election, granted like the one they almost lost last year, they prefer a squish Tory government and their own offices to a chance to challenge again Labour’s loony anti-semitic leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Britain will now go along with no clear direction. One foot in the EU, one foot out. Neither getting the few benefits of EU membership but also not being really able to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with other countries like the U.S. She is viewed with legitimate suspicion by the mandarins of Brussels and with guarded trust by her Five Eyes allies on other issues. Yes, it is the British way to muddle along. But a knocking shop in Marrakesh is better organized than this situation. The Tories had a chance to clear the slate and start anew with fresh leadership and a new Brexit plan that is better for the country. Instead, they chose self-interest.
And what of May herself and the rebels? She can’t trust them and they will continue to have their long knives out for her. Boris, Gove, Raab, Rees-Mogg, and the rest will snipe, hoping to hasten her departure perhaps as soon as the UK allegedly leaves the EU at the end of March next year. It will mean looking-over-your-shoulder government for the Tories for quite a while, as the rebels look for other ways aside from the EU question to weaken May. Her two hundred or so loyalists in parliament will be putting their fingers to the wind every hour, waiting for just the right moment to jump ship and exact maximum personal political gain.
So parliamentary politics, that most fascinating and devilishly amusing of political pursuits, will take the place of responsible government in the UK for a season or two, at least until April.
Quite a sticky wicket, that.
Effect on U.S.: It will keep in limbo our long-term trade status with the UK and might affect our defense partnership a bit. But unless the UK goes full dumbass and joins the Macron-proposed European Army, the special relationship will continue to the mutual benefit of both parties. If, however, the British electorate were to lose their minds and bring to power Labour lunatic Corbyn, then all bets are off. He would be sure to share any classified document or plan with any enemy of the West. The intel classification WNTL/NOFORN, which means “withhold intelligence/no foreign dissemination,” that used to exclude the Brits from its restrictions would then be quickly expanded to include the Brits and maybe even fellow Five Eyes members with British commonwealth association.
Germany: Another flawed wounded female prime minister who promised her party she wouldn’t stand for election at the next go around. But Angela Merkel is smarter and more cunning than May. She has hand-picked a successor so like her in manner, ideology, and image that she has been named “Mini Me” by the German press. She also governs with a political party, the SPD, that has a stake in not having a general election until they think they have enough national support to win it outright. But like May, she has trouble on her right flank with her sister party and coalition partner the Bavarian CSU. The CSU is more conservative than she is on issues across the board.
And oh yeah, she owns Europe.
Achieving by economic power what the Hun could never achieve by the bayonet, Paris and the surrounding nations of Europe jump to her tune. The Easterners not so much, but more on that later. With the leadership of Europe and one of the top economies in the world, you’d think she’d be sitting pretty. But in a still baffling decision a couple of years ago, Tante Angela decided to open up her nation to mass immigration from the Islamic nations of the Levant and Africa. This will change forever what it means to be German.
It will change it for the worse, as the overwhelmingly male immigrants bring with them a brutal misogyny, a primitive culture, and ironically for Germany a pathological hatred for Israel. The Germany I lived in for most of the 1980s, a beautiful country of courteous industrious people with a tempered understanding of political moderation will be outbred and replaced with a teeming mass of unjustifiably indignant Moslem males who will take out their supposed injustices on all and sundry, with a special emphasis on German females. They have already proven this time and again at German public events. As 2019 comes upon us, and in subsequent years, they will make their presence felt more and more in the culture and politics of Germany until, well, you get the drift. Let me get something straight: it’s not the faith of Islam itself that is the issue. Though even if it was I’m not theologian enough to comment on it. It’s the sociopolitical consequences of the stagnant and bitter culture it has bred. It will, in not too long a spell given comparative birthrates, rewrite Europe in ways we can only guess at and shudder.
Effect on US: Pretty much stated above. If current demographic trends continue eventually the former Germans will ally with states like Iran and will be thrown out of NATO. This will give the Russians an in that they never had during decades of Cold War. The Hun trade stance will suffer accordingly and her once proud postwar economic position will be reduced to that of Damascus in a bad year.
On the other side of the coin is…
Eastern Europe: Bustling economies, culturally and politically sure of themselves, to paraphrase Andre Malraux to Whittaker Chambers after Chambers abandoned the left, Eastern Europe did not come back from the hell of communism with empty hands. After generations of the Soviet boot on their neck, nations like Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic are now NATO members with a solid memory of the failed promises of socialism and a keen eye towards the dangers of unrestrained multiculturalism. Their own borders are under their own control. They prize faith and traditional values and look west for their collective defense and economic partners. They are of course pilloried by Western Bolshies for their faith and the popularity of President Trump with their people. They are not infected by the cultural and political masochism so prevalent in other advanced free nations. To go on singing their praises would be redundant.
Effect on US: Only good.
Such is Europe less than a month away from 2019.
Next piece we take on that quagmire of eternal consternation: The Middle East.